Seasonally adjusted AAR data for August showed a month-to-month dip in carloads, down 1.6 percent from July 2010, but a slight increase in intermodal traffic, up 0.6 percent from the month before.
"It is very difficult right now for anyone to forecast the economy’s path. We also know from experience that things can change very quickly," said AAR senior vice president John T. Gray. "That said, there is little in last month’s rail traffic data that would indicate economic recovery has stalled. While a faster recovery path would be attractive to railroads and our customers, the data so far show a slow measured recovery is probably continuing."
On an unadjusted basis, August also saw carload gains in 16 of the 19 commodity groups tracked by AAR. Three categories in particular continue to see sharp gains: metallic ores up 60.8 percent; steel and other primary metal products up 40 percent; and crushed stone, gravel, and sand up 16.3 percent from the same period last year.
Railroads continue to bring employees back to work and cars out of storage. During the month of July, the most recent period for company employment data, railroads added 1,519 people to the employee rolls. U.S. Class I railroads have added 7400 employees in the last six months. Railroads brought 10,759 rail cars out of storage in August, with 348,712 cars, or roughly 22.7 percent of the North American railcar fleet, still in storage.
The Rail Time Indicators report, available at www.aar.org, comprises detailed monthly rail traffic data framed with other key economic indicators to show how freight rail ties into the broader U.S. economy.